I had a buyer call me last Tuesday and say, "Mark, I've been watching the market for eight months waiting for prices to drop. Did I miss it?" And that question right there is why I wanted to write this post. Because the answer is complicated. There are patterns in the DVC resale market. Prices do move up and down throughout the year. But trying to time the market like you're buying stocks is going to cost you vacations. Let me explain what I mean.
After 25 years of selling DVC contracts, I can tell you when prices tend to dip, when they tend to rise, and why the "right time to buy" is almost never about the calendar.
The Seasonal Pattern: When Prices Actually Dip
There is a seasonal rhythm to DVC resale pricing. It's not dramatic. We're not talking 30% swings like the stock market. But there are windows where you're more likely to find better deals, and understanding them gives you an edge.
January and February: The Post-Holiday Slump
This is historically the softest period for DVC resale prices. The holidays are over. People blew their budgets on Christmas and New Year's. Credit card bills from December are rolling in. The last thing most people are thinking about in January is spending $15,000 on a timeshare contract.
But sellers don't stop selling in January. In fact, some sellers are motivated to sell because they just got their annual dues bill (which typically arrives in late November or early December for the upcoming year). They see that $1,200 or $1,600 charge and think, "I haven't used this in two years. Time to sell." So you get motivated sellers listing contracts into a market where buyer demand is lower. Basic supply and demand. More supply, less demand, softer prices.
How much softer? On average, January and February prices run about 3-7% below peak season levels for the same resort and point count. On a $15,000 contract, that's $450-1,050. Not life-changing money, but not nothing either.
Summer: The Quiet Season
June through August is when families are actually using their DVC points. They're on vacation, not browsing resale listings. Buyer activity slows down during summer, which creates another window for slightly better pricing. It's not as pronounced as the January dip, but it's there.
Summer is also when you sometimes see sellers list contracts specifically because they booked a trip to a DVC resort, remembered how much they love it, and then realized their current contract doesn't meet their needs anymore. Maybe they want more points, or a different home resort. So they list what they have. These sellers aren't desperate. But they're motivated and they tend to price competitively.
Fall: Prices Climb
September through November is the busiest buying season for DVC resale. People are back from summer vacations, kids are in school, and families start planning next year's trips. This is when buyer demand peaks. More buyers competing for the same contracts pushes prices up.
Fall is also when Disney typically announces new resort phases, new perks, or price increases on direct purchases. Every time Disney raises their direct prices, it makes resale look even more attractive by comparison. Buyers who were on the fence see Disney asking $200+ per point and suddenly that $120 resale contract looks like a bargain. Demand spikes and prices follow.
Spring: The Sweet Spot
March through May is an interesting window. Prices have recovered from the January lows but haven't hit fall peaks yet. Inventory is usually good because sellers who listed in January and February are still on the market, plus new listings are coming in. And buyer demand is moderate, not frenzied.
If I had to pick one time of year that consistently offers decent selection and fair (not inflated) pricing, spring would be it. But I'm about to tell you why timing the market is mostly a waste of your energy.
Why Timing the Market Is a Losing Strategy
Here's the thing nobody tells you about the DVC resale market. The price swings between seasons are real, but they're small. We're talking single-digit percentages in most cases. And the cost of waiting for the "perfect" price is measured in something more valuable than money.
Lost vacations.
Every month you spend watching the market is a month you're not using DVC points. A month where your family isn't making memories at a DVC resort. A month where the 2042 expiration contracts are ticking down. A month where dues rates are creeping up. A month where Disney might raise their direct prices again, pulling resale values up with them.
I've seen it happen dozens of times. A buyer finds a perfect contract in March. 200 points at Boardwalk, great price, loaded with current year points. But they hesitate because someone on a forum said prices drop in summer. So they pass. Summer comes. Prices drop $2 per point. But that specific Boardwalk contract is long gone. The ones available in July don't have as many current year points. Or they're a different use year. Or they're 160 points instead of 200.
They end up buying in August for the same price they could have paid in March, but with a contract that isn't as good. And they lost five months of potential point usage. If they had a trip planned for September, those would have been the points to use for it.
The right time to buy DVC resale is when you find a contract that matches what you need at a price that works for your budget. Period. Saving $500 by waiting three months makes no sense if you miss out on the contract you actually wanted.
Interest Rates and the DVC Market
When the Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates, it does affect the DVC resale market. But not in the way most people expect.
Higher interest rates don't directly impact DVC purchases because most resale contracts are bought with cash. There's no mortgage involved. You wire the full amount to the closing company and that's it. So rate hikes don't make your monthly payment go up the way they would on a house.
Where rates do matter is indirect. When mortgage rates are high, fewer people are buying houses. That means fewer people are taking on large financial commitments in general. Some potential DVC buyers put their purchase on hold because they're saving for a higher down payment on a house, or because their home equity line of credit got more expensive. This reduces buyer demand, which can soften resale prices.
Conversely, when rates drop, people feel wealthier. Home values rise, equity lines get cheaper, and consumer confidence improves. DVC resale activity picks up and prices firm.
Over the last two years, we've seen this play out in real time. Rates climbed through 2024 and early 2025, and DVC resale prices at many resorts flattened or dipped slightly. As rate cuts started hitting in late 2025, buyer activity picked up and prices stabilized. It's not a dramatic correlation, but it's there in the data.
ROFR Activity by Season: Another Timing Factor
Disney's Right of First Refusal behavior has its own seasonal patterns, and understanding them can help you plan your purchase timing.
Disney tends to be more aggressive with ROFR during periods when they're actively selling direct points at a new resort or after a price increase. If Disney just raised Riviera to $220 per point and they see resale contracts at $130, they're more motivated to buy those back to protect their pricing.
ROFR activity also seems to pick up when Disney has inventory shortages at popular resorts. If they've sold out of direct contracts at a resort and secondary market demand is strong, they'll exercise ROFR more frequently to recapture inventory they can re-sell at direct prices.
From what we've tracked over the years, ROFR activity tends to be highest in spring and fall, which unfortunately coincides with the busiest buying periods. In January and February, when market activity is slower, Disney also seems to pull back on ROFR somewhat. This is another point in favor of buying during the quieter months. Not only might you get a slightly better price, but your odds of passing ROFR might improve too.
For a complete breakdown of how ROFR works and which resorts are most affected, check out our ROFR guide. The resort-by-resort data is eye-opening.
Price Trends Over the Last Five Years
Zoom out from the seasonal noise and look at the big picture. DVC resale prices over the last five years have trended upward. Not every resort, not every month, but the overall direction is up.
Here's what I've seen across the most popular resorts:
Monorail Resorts (Polynesian, Grand Floridian, Contemporary): These have seen the strongest price appreciation. Polynesian resale contracts that sold for $130-140 per point in 2021 are now trading at $155-175. Grand Floridian has gone from $140 to $160+. The monorail resort premium just keeps growing because the supply of resale contracts at these resorts is limited and demand is constant.
EPCOT Area (Boardwalk, Beach Club, Riviera): Beach Club has been a consistent performer, climbing from $110-120 to $130-145 over five years. Boardwalk has followed a similar trajectory. Riviera is interesting because it was the first resort with resale restrictions, which initially suppressed resale demand. But as buyers have come to terms with those restrictions, Riviera resale prices have climbed steadily from $90-100 to $120-135.
Value Resorts (Saratoga Springs, Old Key West, Animal Kingdom Villas): Steady appreciation in the 10-15% range over five years. These are the workhorses of the resale market. Consistent demand, consistent supply, steady price growth. A 200-point Saratoga contract that sold for $75 per point in 2021 goes for $85-95 today.
Off-Property (Hilton Head, Vero Beach): These have been mostly flat or slightly up. They were already priced low, and the 2042 expiration date puts a natural ceiling on how much the market will pay for shrinking contract life. But they haven't lost value, which is noteworthy. You can compare current pricing across all resorts at DVCHomeResort.com's comparison tool.
The takeaway from five years of data is clear. DVC resale has been a good store of value. Not every contract has appreciated. Some niche situations (short contracts, unpopular use years, small point counts) have been flat. But across the board, buying DVC resale and using it for vacations has been financially sound compared to paying rack rates at Disney hotels or buying direct from Disney at ever-increasing prices.
The Cost of Waiting: Real Numbers
Let me quantify what waiting actually costs you. This is the part that changes people's minds.
Say you're looking at a 200-point Boardwalk contract at $118 per point. Total purchase price: $23,600. You decide to wait six months hoping for prices to drop.
Scenario A: Prices drop 5%. Six months later you find a comparable contract at $112 per point. You saved $1,200. Nice. But you also missed booking a one-bedroom villa at Boardwalk for a week using those 200 points. If you'd rented that room instead, it would have cost you $3,500-4,500 at DVC rental rates. Your $1,200 savings just cost you $2,300-3,300 in lost vacation value.
Scenario B: Prices stay flat. You buy six months later at the same $118 per point. You saved nothing. And you still lost that vacation.
Scenario C: Prices go up 5%. You buy at $124 per point and pay $1,200 MORE than you would have six months ago. AND you lost the vacation. This is the worst outcome, and it happens more often than Scenario A because the long-term trend is upward.
The point isn't that you should buy recklessly. It's that the "savings" from timing the market are almost always smaller than the value of the vacations you give up while waiting. If you want to read more about how resale compares to buying direct and why the math favors buying sooner, our resale vs. direct comparison goes deep on the numbers.
How Long Should You Expect to Search
Some buyers find their dream contract in a week. Others search for months. The timeline depends entirely on what you're looking for.
If you want a large-point contract (250+) at a popular resort with a specific use year and loaded points, expect to search for 2-4 months. These contracts exist, but they don't appear every day. When they do, they sell fast.
If you're flexible on use year, willing to look at contracts between 100-200 points, and open to a few different resorts, you can probably find something strong within 2-4 weeks. Flexibility is the single biggest factor in how quickly you'll find a contract.
If you're looking for a specific small resort like Beach Club or Hilton Head, patience matters. These resorts have fewer total contracts in existence, so fewer hit the resale market at any given time. You might see one perfect listing per month, or you might see three in a week. It's unpredictable.
My recommendation is to start watching the market at least a month before you're ready to buy. Get a feel for what contracts are listing at, how fast they sell, and what the typical point loadings look like. Then when you see one that fits, move quickly. Good contracts don't sit around.
Buyers Who Waited vs. Buyers Who Jumped: Real Stories
I'll share a few anonymized stories from real clients because they illustrate the timing dilemma better than any chart can.
The Waiter: A family contacted us in September 2024 looking for 160 points at Animal Kingdom Lodge. They found a great contract at $112 per point but decided to wait until January 2025, figuring post-holiday prices would be softer. In January, AKL contracts were listed at $115-120 per point. The market had moved against them. They ended up buying 150 points (not the 160 they wanted) at $116 per point in February. They paid more per point for fewer points and missed their planned spring trip.
The Jumper: A couple called us in October 2024. Found a 200-point Saratoga Springs contract at $88 per point, loaded with 2024 and 2025 points. They said, "This checks every box, let's do it." Closed in early December, booked a January trip using the 2024 points that were about to expire, had a fantastic vacation, and still had 200 points banked for 2025 trips. By March 2025, comparable Saratoga contracts were listing at $92-95 per point. They couldn't have timed it better, and they weren't even trying to time anything. They just bought what they needed when they found it.
The Analyzer: A buyer spent 14 months tracking prices in a spreadsheet. He knew average prices at six different resorts going back three years. He knew ROFR rates by resort and season. He had pivot tables. When he finally called us, he said he'd identified that February was the statistically optimal buying window and he was ready to pull the trigger. We found him a great contract and he closed in March. His price? About 4% below where he would have bought the previous October. But he'd spent 14 months not going on DVC vacations. At his contract size, those lost vacations were worth roughly $7,000 in rental equivalent value. He saved about $800 by timing the market. The math didn't work.
What Actually Matters More Than Timing
Instead of trying to time the market, focus your energy on these things. They have a much bigger impact on the value you get from your DVC purchase.
Use Year: Picking the right use year for your travel patterns is worth more than any seasonal price dip. A use year that aligns with when you vacation means you're using current year points instead of burning banked points or borrowing from next year. That flexibility has real value.
Point Loading: A contract that comes loaded with current year and sometimes even prior year banked points gives you immediate vacation value. Two contracts might be priced identically, but one comes with 400 usable points and the other comes with 200. The loaded contract is the better deal by far, even if the per-point price is slightly higher.
Contract Size: Buying the right number of points for your actual travel needs prevents you from paying dues on points you don't use. Be honest about how often you'll travel and what room types you'll book. Our buying guide has a section on calculating your ideal point count.
Resort Selection: This matters more than timing because you'll live with this choice for years. Buying at a resort you love at the 11-month window beats saving 5% at a resort you're lukewarm about. The 11-month booking advantage at your home resort is a genuine competitive edge during peak season.
My Honest Advice After 25 Years
People ask me "when should I buy" at least three or four times a week. And my answer is always some version of the same thing. Buy when you find the right contract at a price that fits your budget. Don't wait for the market to come to you because you'll be waiting forever for a bottom that you'll only see in hindsight.
The DVC resale market is not the stock market. It doesn't crash 30% in a month. It doesn't spike 50% in a quarter. It moves slowly, steadily, and mostly upward over time. The seasonal dips are real but small. The cost of waiting is measured in lost vacations, not in saved dollars.
If you've done your research, you know which resort you want, you understand the dues commitment, and you find a contract that matches your needs, the best time to buy is now. Not January. Not summer. Now.
Start browsing on our resale listings page. See what's available at the resorts you're interested in. Compare current pricing at DVCHomeResort.com if you want to see how today's prices stack up historically. And if you want someone to walk you through the options and help you figure out what makes sense for your family, call us at (407) 205-1435. We've been doing this for 25 years and we're happy to give you our honest take, even if that take is "wait a little longer" or "this isn't the right resort for you."
The families who get the most value out of DVC are the ones who stop researching and start vacationing. The data is clear on that.